‘Uncertainty and a hard winter’. Wojtek Wilk on the difficulties facing Ukraine in 2025

The military and political situation will shape the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine. If there are no major changes, the status quo will remain, and then I would not expect significant population movements. However, from today’s perspective, excluding sudden events and their consequences is difficult.

People adapt to different conditions, and there has come a point where most people, even those who have had to flee their homes, have adapted to the situation. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance within Ukraine is decreasing, but definitely slower than the amount of aid available. Suppose the war continues at its current intensity. In that case, if the military-political situation does not change or changes slightly, I do not expect major population movements, either within Ukraine or from Ukraine to other countries.

On the other hand, in the case of sudden changes that we cannot predict, whether political, such as a forced ceasefire or military, the scale of population movements is difficult to predict.

Peace? A ceasefire?

If there were peace to satisfy the aspirations of Ukrainians, a large proportion of refugees may decide to return to their country, to their home. I often meet such people at work, grateful for any help received in Poland; they have a job here, a roof over their heads, but ‘over there’ they have a home. They are moved to tears when asked about their return because they are waiting for this moment.

However, this is only one possible scenario. Unfortunately, there are others. Suppose a cessation of hostilities is imposed, a situation which will bring fears of tomorrow, of Russia attacking again, in 5 or 10 years. In that case, many may lose hope of a future in Ukraine and begin to migrate to European Union countries. These are huge challenges, and there could be catastrophic events that cannot be ruled out from today’s perspective.

This winter will be the toughest since the start of the war.

Let us remember that, among other things, Russia is constantly attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which is already badly damaged. The attacks mean that this winter, in terms of electricity availability, will probably be the hardest since the start of the war.

That is why the PCPM Foundation is working not only to support Ukrainian refugees in Poland but, of course, also inside Ukraine. We support residents near Kharkiv, Kherson, and in various smaller towns in the east, southern Ukraine, and closer to the Polish border, in the Lviv region.

Support for patients and local authorities

Currently, one of our activities is the reconstruction of the health care system, mainly in rural municipalities. We are renovating more than 10 health measures in different regions of Ukraine. Renovating and retrofitting outpatient clinics is not a huge cost. We are not building new ones but restoring the functionality of pre-existing ones. It is simple renovation work and essential equipment such as medical analyzers, and these activities have two levels. On the one hand, we are improving conditions and access to medical care for Ukrainian residents in smaller towns and rural areas.

On the other hand, and this is very important, we are supporting Ukrainian local authorities in this way. Until recently, Ukraine was still a centralized state, where rural municipalities either did not exist or were weak. It is a huge support for a rural municipality when it has a refurbished health center on its territory, which allows more people to receive medical care. The local municipality gains more respect and trust, and the administration at this lowest but crucial level for the inhabitants develops.

We deliver humanitarian aid parcels all the time, where necessary, but in many places, we have moved from humanitarian to development aid. This is support with an eye to the future, geared more towards long-term impact. It aims to improve conditions and access to healthcare for those most in need and strengthen local institutions and governments.

For us at the Foundation, one thing is sure – we are helping Ukraine and will be there whether the war ends quickly or continues. Supporting Ukraine is in Poland’s interest. It is also in the interest of Polish security. I am talking about not only military support but also humanitarian support.